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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
HOU@KC
Houston Houston Astros at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 4 - KC 5.5
Sportsbook line
+109
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.7% to 54.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.011) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · cold40% season win rate
- HOU · neutral45% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)28-42
- HOUAvg 4.6 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)32-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.62Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs