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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
STL@CHC
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 4.5 - CHC 6
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-175)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 54.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.022) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral56% season win rate
- STL · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 5.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)49-38
- STLAvg 4.5 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)45-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.72Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs