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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
SEA@WSH
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Washington Washington Nationals · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
SEA
Predicted final score
SEA 3.8 - WSH 5.3
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SEA +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 52.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.002) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.035) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral50% season win rate
- SEA · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.4 allowed (season)35-35
- SEAAvg 4.3 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)37-34
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.51Historical comp-0.08
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.02Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs