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FreshLine moved
Updated 46m agoMLB
TOR@BOS
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Boston Red Sox · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
TOR 4 - BOS 5.5
Sportsbook line
+107
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 53.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.017) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.035) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BOS · neutral41% season win rate
- TOR · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BOSAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)29-41
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)35-38
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs