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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 1d agoMLB
TB@LAD
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
TB
Predicted final score
TB 4 - LAD 5.5
Sportsbook line
+157
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TB +1.5 (-126)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.3% to 62.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.001) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.037) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot63% season win rate
- TB · hot60% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.4 scored · 3.4 allowed (season)45-27
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)41-27
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Net rating gap 1.84Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.01Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.83Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs