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Updated today
Updated 1h agoMLB
CIN@NYY
Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
CIN 3.8 - NYY 5.3
Sportsbook line
+198
Implied probability
32%
from market price
Model probability
32%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-113)
Home no-vig implied moved from 67.8% to 67.8% (flat).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.023) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (0.000) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot63% season win rate
- CIN · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.3 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)45-27
- CINAvg 4.3 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)35-38
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs