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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
PHI@MIL
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIL
Predicted final score
PHI 4.3 - MIL 2.8
Sportsbook line
+107
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIL +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 46.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.026) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.008) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIL · hot62% season win rate
- PHI · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MILAvg 5.4 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)42-26
- PHIAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)38-32
Historical trends
- [home] Net rating gap 1.86Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.55Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.31Historical comp+0.08
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs