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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
SF@ATL
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 3.3 - ATL 4.8
Sportsbook line
+114
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-186)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 55.7% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.049) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.010) - supports pick
- market value (+0.016) - against pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · hot63% season win rate
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 5.0 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)46-27
- SFAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)31-43
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.82Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.21Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Net rating gap 2.03Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs