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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
WSH@BAL
Washington Washington Nationals at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 5.3 - BAL 3.8
Sportsbook line
-110
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH -1.5 (+150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 50.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.001) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.034) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral47% season win rate
- WSH · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)39-44
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)41-42
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.65Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs