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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
BUF@HOU
Buffalo Buffalo Bills at Houston Houston Texans · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
BUF 22.8 - HOU 21.8
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.6% to 48.9% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.010) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral50% season win rate
- BUF · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- BUFNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs