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FreshLine moved
Updated 27m agoMLB
MIL@ATL
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIL
Predicted final score
MIL 3.8 - ATL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIL +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.5% to 56.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.003) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · hot64% season win rate
- MIL · hot62% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 5.0 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)47-27
- MILAvg 5.3 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)45-28
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs