Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
PIT@PHI
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
PIT 3.5 - PHI 5
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.5% to 57.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.012) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.032) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral56% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)48-38
- PITAvg 5.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)43-43
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.66Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.45Historical comp+0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs