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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
NYM@ATL
New York New York Mets at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 8:08 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 3.3 - ATL 4.8
Sportsbook line
+160
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
35%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-134)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.3% to 63.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.07). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.036) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.065) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.07). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · neutral59% season win rate
- NYM · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 4.7 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)51-35
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)36-52
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Net rating gap 1.58Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.80Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.78Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs