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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
MIA@PIT
Miami Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 3.8 - PIT 5.3
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-205)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 51.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.004) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.083) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
- MIA · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PITAvg 5.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)35-35
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)35-35
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.71Historical comp+0.04
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.49Historical comp-0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs