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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
STL@CHC
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 8:08 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 3.3 - CHC 4.8
Sportsbook line
+135
Implied probability
40%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-167)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.3% to 59.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (0.000) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.003) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral56% season win rate
- STL · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 5.1 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)49-39
- STLAvg 4.7 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)46-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs