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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 1d agoMLB
MIA@PHI
Miami Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 3.3 - PHI 4.8
Sportsbook line
+163
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-139)
Home no-vig implied moved from 65.2% to 63.9% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.021) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral54% season win rate
- MIA · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)38-33
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)36-36
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs