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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
CLE@HOU
Cleveland Cleveland Guardians at Houston Houston Astros · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
CLE
Predicted final score
CLE 3.5 - HOU 5
Sportsbook line
+131
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CLE +1.5 (-160)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 57.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.016) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral47% season win rate
- CLE · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.6 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)36-41
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)40-36
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.62Historical comp+0.04
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.91Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs