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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
CLE@HOU
Cleveland Cleveland Guardians at Houston Houston Astros · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
CLE
Predicted final score
CLE 3.5 - HOU 5
Sportsbook line
+115
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CLE +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 55.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.017) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.014) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral46% season win rate
- CLE · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)35-41
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)40-35
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs