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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
LAD@SD
Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego San Diego Padres · 4:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
LAD 4.8 - SD 3.3
Sportsbook line
+122
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.7% to 43.9% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.013) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SD · neutral54% season win rate
- LAD · hot63% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SDAvg 4.0 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)43-37
- LADAvg 5.2 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)52-30
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -1.22Historical comp-0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Net rating gap -1.67Historical comp-0.04
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.45Historical comp-0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs