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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
MIA@LV
Miami Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Las Vegas Raiders · 4:25 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 18.5 - LV 22
Sportsbook line
+140
Implied probability
40%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +3.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.9% to 60.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.008) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.008) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LV · neutral50% season win rate
- MIA · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LVNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- MIANo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs