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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
HOU@WSH
Houston Houston Astros at Washington Washington Nationals · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 4 - WSH 5.5
Sportsbook line
+101
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-195)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.0% to 52.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.007) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral51% season win rate
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.4 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)47-45
- HOUAvg 4.6 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)45-48
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.84Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs