Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
LAD@SD
Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego San Diego Padres · 9:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
LAD 4.5 - SD 3
Sportsbook line
+129
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-134)
Home no-vig implied moved from 42.6% to 42.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.014) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SD · neutral53% season win rate
- LAD · hot64% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)42-37
- LADAvg 5.2 scored · 3.4 allowed (season)52-29
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs