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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
ATL@SF
Atlanta Atlanta Braves at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
ATL 4.5 - SF 3
Sportsbook line
+152
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-115)
Home no-vig implied moved from 41.4% to 38.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.033) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.046) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral41% season win rate
- ATL · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)33-48
- ATLAvg 4.8 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)49-31
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.79Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.08Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Net rating gap -1.87Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs