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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
LAA@ATH
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Athletics Athletics · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 3.8 - ATH 5.3
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.7% to 54.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.023) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.012) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
- LAA · cold40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)38-39
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)31-47
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs