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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
CHC@NYM
Chicago Chicago Cubs at New York New York Mets · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
CHC 3.5 - NYM 5
Sportsbook line
+103
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-3 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM -1.5 (+188)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.4% to 48.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.15). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.148) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.15). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
- CHC · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)34-43
- CHCAvg 4.8 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)40-37
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.71Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs