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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
NYM@TOR
New York New York Mets at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 3:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 5 - TOR 3.5
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM -1.5 (+160)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.5% to 51.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.015) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.043) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral47% season win rate
- NYM · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.0 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-46
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)36-50
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs