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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
LAA@SEA
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 2.8 - SEA 4.3
Sportsbook line
+158
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.0% to 62.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.013) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.023) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral50% season win rate
- LAA · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.0 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)43-43
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)36-50
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs