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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 22d agoMLB
CHW@CLE
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Cleveland Guardians · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 3.5 - CLE 5
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-220)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.1% to 52.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.08). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (0.000) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.080) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.08). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CLE · neutral52% season win rate
- CHW · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)45-42
- CHWAvg 4.8 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)45-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.86Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.47Historical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs