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FreshLine moved
Updated 41m agoMLB
MIA@PHI
Miami Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 1:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 3.8 - PHI 5.3
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 51.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.018) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.028) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral55% season win rate
- MIA · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)40-33
- MIAAvg 4.2 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)36-38
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs