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Yesterday
Updated 3h agoMLB
SF@MIA
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Miami Miami Marlins · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 3.3 - MIA 4.8
Sportsbook line
-101
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 50.9% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.021) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIA · neutral49% season win rate
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)37-38
- SFAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)31-43
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.46Historical comp+0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs