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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
PIT@ATH
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
PIT 6 - ATH 4.5
Sportsbook line
+117
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-125)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.3% to 45.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.008) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.020) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)36-37
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)37-37
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs