Back to dashboard
FreshLine moved
Updated 40m agoMLB
PIT@ATH
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
PIT 5.8 - ATH 4.3
Sportsbook line
+104
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.3% to 47.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.026) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)36-37
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)37-37
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs