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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
TB@LAA
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels · 4:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
TB 5.3 - LAA 3.8
Sportsbook line
+107
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-155)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 47.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.037) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.005) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAA · neutral41% season win rate
- TB · neutral60% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)29-42
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-27
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.54Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs