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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
LAD@ATH
Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
LAD 6 - ATH 4.5
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 48.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.033) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.016) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral48% season win rate
- LAD · hot64% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)40-44
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)54-30
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs