TB@MIA
Home no-vig implied moved from 44.9% to 84.7% (toward home).
""
Clutch Puppy Expert Summary
Take Tampa Bay -1.5 (+130). The model gives TB a 55.4% win probability vs the market implied 54.9%, producing a small value gap of 0.5% and a strength score of 69%. This suggests a modest EV edge buying the road -1.5 at the current prices.
The market opened 114/-134 and sits at 117/-128 now; the home no-vig implied moved from 44.9% to 45.1% (toward home). That small drift toward the home side (Opened 114/-134 -> Current 117/-128) shows limited market pressure and no dramatic steam.
The model lists TB at 55.4% while the market implied probability sits at 54.9%—a 0.5% value gap that favors taking the road -1.5 at +130.
Statistical_edge shows signal -0.065 with weight 0.45 contributing -0.029 to the composite (listed as supporting the pick); that is the single largest weighted component pushing the model toward TB.
Sharp_agreement is slightly against the pick with signal 0.012, weight 0.2 and contribution 0.002, indicating a small professional disagreement to monitor when steam develops.
The public/market moved the line from Opened 114/-134 to Current 117/-128 and home no-vig implied moved from 44.9% to 45.1% (toward home), so the market has nudged toward Miami since open.
- Model win probability: 55.4%
- Market implied probability: 54.9% (value gap = 0.5%)
- Strength score: 69%
- Opened 114/-134, current 117/-128 (home no-vig moved from 44.9% to 45.1%)
- Model win probability: 55.4%
- Market implied probability: 54.9%
- Value gap (edge): 0.5%
- Strength score: 69%
- Statistical_edge contribution: -0.029
- Sharp_agreement contribution: 0.002
- Home-field baseline strength: 0.009
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
Best bet - TB -1.5 (+130) — model gives TB a 55.4% win probability and a value gap of 0.5% versus the market.
Total - Predicted score TB 4.5 — MIA 3 implies a lower-scoring game consistent with the model's expected run totals.
The most realistic way this loses is the small sharp disagreement—sharp_agreement signal 0.012 produced a contribution of 0.002 that leans against the pick, which could indicate pros see a wrinkle the model missed.
No reported injury impact.
The predicted final score TB 4.5 — MIA 3 aligns with the model's 55.4% win probability for Tampa Bay and the modest expected scoring differential baked into the matchup.
The 69% strength reflects the model's confidence based on a 0.5% value gap between the model win probability (55.4%) and the market implied probability (54.9%).
This projects as a close, slightly controlled road win for Tampa Bay driven by a small statistical edge and neutral situational factors — final score TB 4.5, MIA 3.
Bottom line: play TB -1.5 (+130) at or above that price versus the current -128 market line; the model shows a 0.5% edge and a 69% strength score, worth a small, disciplined wager.
Shop the price: target +130 or better on TB -1.5 relative to the current sportsbook line -128. If you can't get +130, wait or trim stake; juice shopping matters when edges are ~0.5%. Correlated plays should only be used if they don't inflate juice substantially.
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.052) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.200) - supports pick
- market value (-0.017) - against pick
Counterargument
Variance is always in play.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
Recent form (last 10)
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baseline