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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
CHW@CLE
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Cleveland Guardians · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 3 - CLE 4.5
Sportsbook line
-103
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
51%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-220)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.7% to 50.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.004) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.067) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CLE · neutral52% season win rate
- CHW · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)46-42
- CHWAvg 4.8 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)45-41
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs