Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 30d agoMLB
BOS@COL
Boston Boston Red Sox at Colorado Colorado Rockies · 3:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
BOS 6.3 - COL 4.8
Sportsbook line
+155
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (+100)
Home no-vig implied moved from 40.7% to 37.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.010) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.055) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- COL · cold39% season win rate
- BOS · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- COLAvg 4.5 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)31-49
- BOSAvg 3.9 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)32-45
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.60Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.69Historical comp-0.08
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs