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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
CHW@BAL
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 12:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 4.3 - BAL 5.8
Sportsbook line
+133
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.8% to 58.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.023) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.037) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral45% season win rate
- CHW · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)39-48
- CHWAvg 4.9 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)45-39
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.49Historical comp-0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs