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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
MIA@COL
Miami Miami Marlins at Colorado Colorado Rockies · 8:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
MIA 6.3 - COL 4.8
Sportsbook line
+123
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-115)
Home no-vig implied moved from 41.8% to 43.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.032) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- COL · cold38% season win rate
- MIA · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)33-53
- MIAAvg 4.5 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)46-40
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.64Historical comp-0.08
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs