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FreshLine moved
Updated 19m agoMLB
BAL@LAD
Baltimore Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
BAL
Predicted final score
BAL 4 - LAD 5.5
Sportsbook line
+180
Implied probability
34%
from market price
Model probability
33%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BAL +1.5 (-109)
Home no-vig implied moved from 62.7% to 65.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.033) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.046) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot64% season win rate
- BAL · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.4 allowed (season)48-27
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)35-41
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.69Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.71Historical comp+0.09
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Net rating gap 2.39Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs