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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
CHW@NYY
Chicago Chicago White Sox at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 4 - NYY 5.5
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.1% to 57.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.018) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.011) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot62% season win rate
- CHW · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)44-27
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)38-33
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs