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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
CHW@NYY
Chicago Chicago White Sox at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 4.3 - NYY 5.8
Sportsbook line
+133
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-152)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.1% to 59.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.019) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.036) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot63% season win rate
- CHW · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.3 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)45-27
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)38-34
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.56Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.18Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Net rating gap 1.74Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs