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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
MIN@HOU
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at Houston Houston Astros · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 3.5 - HOU 5
Sportsbook line
+130
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-175)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 58.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.087) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral49% season win rate
- MIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)43-45
- MINAvg 4.8 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)41-46
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs