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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
CHC@SF
Chicago Chicago Cubs at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 3:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHC
Predicted final score
CHC 3.3 - SF 4.8
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHC +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.4% to 55.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.030) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.036) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · cold39% season win rate
- CHC · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)28-43
- CHCAvg 4.6 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)37-34
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.51Historical comp-0.03
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.52Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs