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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 9h agoMLB
TB@LAD
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
TB
Predicted final score
TB 3.3 - LAD 4.8
Sportsbook line
+126
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TB +1.5 (-164)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.7% to 57.4% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.034) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot63% season win rate
- TB · neutral59% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.4 allowed (season)46-27
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)41-28
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.01Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.84Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Net rating gap 1.84Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs