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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
SD@LAD
San Diego San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 3.3 - LAD 4.8
Sportsbook line
+200
Implied probability
32%
from market price
Model probability
31%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (+105)
Home no-vig implied moved from 67.3% to 68.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.023) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.013) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot65% season win rate
- SD · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.4 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)57-31
- SDAvg 4.0 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)43-43
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs