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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 11h agoMLB
KC@WSH
Kansas City Kansas City Royals at Washington Washington Nationals · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
KC 3.5 - WSH 5
Sportsbook line
+114
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-190)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.0% to 55.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.029) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.058) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral52% season win rate
- KC · cold40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.5 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)38-35
- KCAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)29-44
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.48Historical comp+0.09
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.52Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home PPG 5.5 vs avg 4.7Historical comp+0.01
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs