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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
TOR@SEA
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SEA
Predicted final score
TOR 4.3 - SEA 2.8
Sportsbook line
+105
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SEA +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 46.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.017) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.020) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
- TOR · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.1 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)45-43
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)41-46
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs