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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
DET@TEX
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Texas Texas Rangers · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
TEX
Predicted final score
DET 5 - TEX 3.5
Sportsbook line
+106
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TEX +1.5 (-160)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.0% to 46.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.027) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TEX · neutral51% season win rate
- DET · neutral43% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TEXAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)45-43
- DETAvg 4.2 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)38-50
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs