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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 4d agoMLB
DET@CLE
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Cleveland Guardians · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 3.5 - CLE 5
Sportsbook line
+104
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 53.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.028) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.049) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CLE · neutral53% season win rate
- DET · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)37-33
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)29-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs