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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
CLE@CHW
Cleveland Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Chicago White Sox · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CLE 4.5 - CHW 3
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-183)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 49.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.002) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.032) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHW · neutral51% season win rate
- CLE · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHWAvg 4.6 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)39-37
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)41-37
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs