Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
DET@NYY
Detroit Detroit Tigers at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 3.3 - NYY 4.8
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.8% to 55.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.038) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.010) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · neutral58% season win rate
- DET · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 4.9 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)48-35
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)35-49
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs