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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
HOU@TOR
Houston Houston Astros at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 7:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 2.8 - TOR 4.3
Sportsbook line
+114
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-195)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.7% to 54.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.010) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral49% season win rate
- HOU · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)38-39
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)37-42
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs